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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Pope Benedict XVI has about a 45 per cent chance of
dying by the end of 2008 owing to Wales' latest Six Nations success, they
say.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Since 1883 eight Pontiffs have died - five in Grand
Slam years. Three deaths happened when Wales completed the sweep, and two others
when Wales won the tournament but not the Grand Slam.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Interestingly, although the deaths did not always
coincide with a Welsh Grand Slam win they did correspond with a victory of a
predominantly Protestant nation - England, Scotland or Wales - rather than a
Roman Catholic one such as France, Ireland, or Italy.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Dr Gareth Payne and colleagues said their findings
suggest a link between the success of the Welsh rugby union team and papal
deaths, so the Vatican medical staff "cannot fully relax until the new year
arrives."</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Dr Payne, of University Hospital Wales, Cardiff,
said: "In recent times, an intriguing urban legend has arisen in Wales: 'every
time Wales win the rugby grand slam, a Pope dies, except for 1978 when Wales
were really good, and two Popes died.'</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>"The special theory of papal rugby is nothing more
than an urban myth, based largely on two Welsh grand slam wins in recent
memory.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>"This comes as something of a relief, as we are at
a loss to see how the events could be linked, especially given the continuing
rapprochement between Catholic and Protestant churches.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>"Nevertheless, using the Six Nations data from
2008, our model for the general theory of papal rugby predicts that 0.62 (about
three fifths) of a Pope will die this year."</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The researchers, whose findings are published
online by the British Medical Journal, charted all northern hemisphere rugby
championships since 1883, but discarded the years 1885, 1888-9, 1897-8 and 1972
because not all the scheduled matches were played.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A Grand Slam is one nation beating all other
competing teams in the Six Nations.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A
href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/3813356/Pope-more-likely-to-die-after-Wales-won-Grand-Slam.html">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/3813356/Pope-more-likely-to-die-after-Wales-won-Grand-Slam.html</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT color=#808000>--<BR>Stephen Korsman<BR><A
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